Is Francois Savoie really the son of Tomaso?

According to the current Geni family tree my MRCA with a present-day Savoie descendant would be the father of Tomasso, Charles Emmanuel I, Duke of Savoy, who is my 13th great grandfather. The wife of Charles, however, who is a daughter of Felipe II of Spain, is also my 13th great grandmother. This effectively cuts the MRCA distance by 1 generation at this point in time alone. Repeat this marriage arrangement in the next 400 years and 6.8 MRCA becomes a not so remote possibility anymore.

This is great evidence Bill. Interestingly, my mother and her siblings have matched a young woman in Austria. From loooking at her tree and mine, the only geographically point that we could intersect is Turin Italy, the home of the House of Savoy.

I would assume that there were other Savoy males who followed the example of Prinz Eugen and fought for the Holy Roman Empire.

Yes, Bill. I think there is a common ancestor between my family and the woman from Austria. She does have some Italian in her DNA test.

I once got a match with someone from Vyazma, Russia. And the guy said: How is this possible?My family has been living at the same village for the last 200 years.

And I said: Just remember, the French passed through Vyazma on their way to and from Moscow about 200 years ago.

Many of the Savoie males that I have tests for have a small east Asia signal. None of the females Savoies have shown the same East Asia ancestry. Very interesting.

I compared the Gedmatch kits of the three (3) Savoie descendants posted on this thread against mine, and here are the results for Chromosome 1, Location 155M to 161M:

Savoie A - 3.0 cM

Savoie B - 2.1 cM & 3.3 cM

Savoie C - 3.9 cM

By comparison, my 6.8 MRCA match has 8.5 cM at exactly the same location.

A possible explanation for the presence of East Asian genes among modern Cajuns:

'Saint Malo was only one of the Filipino settlements in the Southern United States. The other southern Louisiana settlements were Manila Village on Barataria Bay, in the Mississippi River Delta by the Gulf of Mexico; Alombro Canal and Camp Dewey in Plaquemines Parish; and Leon Rojas, Bayou Cholas, and Bassa Bassa in Jefferson Parish.

Manila Village on Barataria Bay was considered to be the largest and most popular; Saint Malo, however, was the oldest. Houses in Manila Village were built on stilts on a 50-acre (200,000 m2) marshland; this community survived until 1965, when Hurricane Betsy destroyed it. Part of the legacy of the Filipinos was the production of dried shrimp, known as "sea bob" from the French term "six barbe." Dried shrimp is still produced by the Cajuns of Louisiana.' [Wikipedia]

from Bill Gabunia Debuque: I compared the Gedmatch kits of the three (3) Savoie descendants posted on this thread against mine, and here are the results for Chromosome 1, Location 155M to 161M:
Savoie A - 3.0 cM
Savoie B - 2.1 cM & 3.3 cM
Savoie C - 3.9 cM
By comparison, my 6.8 MRCA match has 8.5 cM at exactly the same location."

Bill, what's your interpretation or conclusion from this?

Conservatively ignoring the 2.1 cM match as ancient DNA, the average match for the 3 Savoies would be 3.4 cM.

Which begs the question, if 8.4 cM is 6.8 MRCA, what is the MRCA distance for 3.4 cM?

Applying simple arithmetical calculations, the answer would be 16.8 MRCA (8.4/3.4x6.8).

Interestingly, the paper distance of my theoretical MRCA with Francois, Charles Emmanuel I, is 16.

Very interesting figures.

So the DNA test results and matches support the oral tradition that Francis Savoie isfrom the House of Savoie, specifically the son of Tomaso. Correct?

I have made a slight mistake in the calculation. My MRCA distance with Charles Emmanuel I would be 15. It would be at 16 with Felipe II.

Nevertheless, the DNA results would still support the conclusion that, more likely than not, Francois Savoie is a House of Savoy descendant.

I also made a slight mistake in the MRCA extrapolation.

The extrapolated MRCA of the average match size on the 3 Savoies is exactly 17 (8.5/3.4x6.8) and not 16.8 as initially calculated.

The individual extrapolated MRCA of the 3 Savoies would be as follows:

Savoie A (3.0 cM) = 19.3 MRCA

Savoie B (3.3 cM) = 17.5 MRCA

Savoie C (3.9 cM) = 14.8 MRCA

My paper MRCA of 15 with Charles Emmanuel I and 16 with Felipe II fall exactly within this range.

From Bill: "I have made a slight mistake in the calculation. My MRCA distance with Charles Emmanuel I would be 15. It would be at 16 with Felipe II.

Nevertheless, the DNA results would still support the conclusion that, more likely than not, Francois Savoie is a House of Savoy descendant."

Add in the strong family oral tradition and it looks like it is more likely than not that Francois Savoie is a House of Savoy descendant.

Thanks for the analysis Bill!

I made a similar comparison of the DNA of the 3 Savoies with the DNA of my 6.8 MRCA Comeau descendant match, and here are the results for Chromosome 1, Location 155M to 161M:

Savoie A (2.9 cM) = 19.9 MRCA
Savoie B (4.4 cM) = 13.1 MRCA
Savoie C (3.1 cM) = 18.6 MRCA

Average (3.5 cM) = 16.5 MRCA

Now, I don't know the exact generational distance of the 3 Savoies (who appear to be siblings), as well as my Comeau descendant match from Francois. But based on my own distance of 13 generations, it could be as near as 12 or as far as 16. In which case, the above figures appear to be within range.

The three Savoies are siblings. Who is your Savoie ancestor?

For conservatism, I'm using Felipe II, 3 generations away from Francois.

From the Savoie siblings to Charles Emanuel Duke of Savoy (father of Tomaso Savoy is 13 generations.

So Bill if you are descended from Charles Emanuel Savoy, but not Francis, and you match the three Savoie siblings, and you dont have any connection to them except through Francis Savoy , leading to a common ancestor of Charles Emanual, then I would say the mystery of is Francis Savoie is from the House of Savoy is solved in the affirmative.

This is great news! However, there is the mystery of how this happened.

The lineage of Don Pablo Ponce De Leon through Princess Maria Luisa of Savoy is still being debated. So the safe assumption is that my MRCA with the 3 Savoies is Felipe II, who is 16 generations from me and 14 generations from them.

That MRCA is within the range of your assessment of how many generations back you are related to the Savoys. Again, I think we can call the Francis Savoy mystery solved.

A good parallel reference to the Francois Savoie story is the life of our very own Juan Ponce De Leon. He was a "gentleman volunteer" with a Spanish nobility surname in the 2nd expedition of Columbus who became world famous through his New World adventures.

As late as 2 years ago, he does not have any listed parents at Geni. Until now, his Wiki page has no details of his ancestry.

Who knows, maybe the story of Juan Ponce De Leon even partly influenced Francois to launch his own quest for fame and fortune in the New World.

I actually have another close match with a Boucher descendant at exactly the same chromosome and location. As I understand it, one of the earliest Acadians is a Boucher.

The Boucher match very likely has a Savoie in his back ground

I again made a similar comparison of the DNA of the 3 Savoies with the DNA of my Boucher descendant match, and here are the results for Chromosome 1, Location 155M to 161M:

Savoie A (2.3 cM) = 25.1 MRCA
Savoie B (3.8 cM) = 15.2 MRCA
Savoie C (4.3 cM) = 13.4 MRCA

Average (3.5 cM) = 16.5 MRCA

Now, I also don't know the exact generational distance of my Boucher descendant match from Francois. But I assume that it would approximate my own distance of 13 generations. The 3 Savoie siblings are 11 generations away from Francois.

I have encountered claims online that Gedmatch itself can be off by as much as 3 generations. In which case, the above figures appear to be still within range.

This is great work Bill. You are like a Rosetta Stone for the Francis Savoie DNA mystery since you don't have much European ancestry except through the House of Savoy.

To summarize, here are the extrapolated MRCAs based on the average match size:

3 Savoies vs. Me = 17 MRCA
3 Savoies vs. Comeau descendant = 16.5 MRCA
3 Savoies vs. Boucher descendant = 16.5 MRCA

While the extrapolated MRCAs are a bit farther than the paper MRCAs (not more than 16 for me; not more than 13 for the Comeau and Boucher descendants), it cannot be denied that it supports the assumption that the MRCA distance of a non-Acadian descendant like me should be farther than those of Acadian descendants.

Hi Bill, you have done some great work here. May I ask a big favor as a Francis Savoie descendant? Could you summarize our discussion and conclusions over the last few days into a paragraph that a lay person who isn't a DNA expert can understand? Thank you so much. 😀

This exercise becomes even more thought-provoking if the extrapolated MRCAs are summarized based on the largest match size:

3 Savoies vs. Me = 14.8 MRCA
3 Savoies vs. Comeau descendant = 13.1 MRCA
3 Savoies vs. Boucher descendant = 13.8 MRCA

The extrapolated MRCAs are now within or very near the estimated paper MRCA ranges (not more than 16 for me; not more than 13 for the Comeau and Boucher descendants). This strongly supports the possibility that these Acadian descendants have a common Acadian ancestor who descended from the Habsburgs and/or the Bourbons. And currently, the Acadian who has the most well-supported claim for the same is Francois Savoie, who is supposed to be a grandson of Felipe II's daughter.

Great analysis Bill! Add in the strong oral tradition and it looks like Francis Savoie is the son of Tomaso.